Over the past month, investors scaled back on risk and shifted money into safe havens like U.S. Treasuries. Consequently, high-yield bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have suffered a dramatic sell-off. But there’s optimism that high-yield bond ETFs will benefit from today’s economic environment.
Doug Forsyth of Allianz Global Investors Capital believes that “the stronger-than-expected economic recovery, a firmer earnings environment and historically low interest rates puts U.S. high-yield bonds in a sweet spot,” reports Katrina Nicholas of Business Week. [Tom Talks High-Yield on CNBC.]
More specifically, Forsyth predicts that companies rated between B and BB will appreciate the most over the coming year. He cites that companies with such ratings had an average of 30% year-over-year increase in cash flow for the first quarter. [2010: The Year of Junk Bond ETFs?]
Further, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey of economists, the U.S. economy is estimated to grow 3.2% annually through 2011. That is higher than earlier estimates. [The Impact of Higher Rates on Bond ETFs.]