Which Commodity ETFs Could Heat Up As the Weather Cools?

September 10, 2009 at 11:00 am by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Commodity ETFsWhile many believe that we’re in the midst of an atypical market environment, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities with exchange traded funds (ETFs) to be had. In fact, some have been taking an interest in commodities in particular.

Could we be in a trough until the next bull market cycle? That’s what Jim Lowell for the MoneyShow feels. And if the improving macro trends hold up, the markets are primed for a longer-term up swing.

The latest five-month rally is setting the stage for a track back to growth, especially in China, and possibly in the United States. This puts commodities and the stocks in the companies that mine, transport, process, and sell them, in a growth position, with more room to run, Lowell says.

The bottom line is that commodities from steel to corn are already low in supply, and if a return to growth continues, the demand will outstrip the supply, possibly creating a price premium.

The projected growth of emerging market consumers, and the re-emergent growth of United States and possibly European consumers, all the world is a commodity stage. There are several ways to play the potential growth of commodities with ETFs, with both broad and narrowly focused ETFs.

However, watch the trends for opportunities – don’t rely on predictions, because unforeseen events have a way of delivering surprises when it comes to commodity prices. Read our commodities special report on the ins and outs of investing in them, then read our trend following report for how to implement a simple plan. Or for more detail, check out The ETF Trend Following Playbook!

A sample of various commodity ETFs:

  • United States Oil (NYSEArca:USO): up 11.6% year-to-date

  • iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index Trust (NYSEArca:GSG): up 2.6% year-to-date

  • PowerShares DB Precious Metals (NYSEArca:DBP): up 17% year-to-date


For more stories about commodity ETFs, visit our commodity ETFs category.

Share this post:
  • email
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Tipd
  • Reddit
  • StumbleUpon
  • Facebook
  • Technorati
  • Google Bookmarks
  • TwitThis

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Subscribe to Our Daily E-mail Newsletter

Enter your e-mail address below to sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter, the Daily Market Update. We will never share your e-mail address with third parties.

Subscribe to Our RSS Feed

Click here to subscribe to our RSS feed

  • tomjefs
    Hi Tom,

    If commodities are booming how come (my) Etfs All Commodities DJ-AIGCI is down 35% since July 08? This is the worst sector performer I have over this period. Everything else (Small and Large caps, REITs, Bonds, Gilts, Gold) is drifting around positive territory.
  • Tomjefs, what's the ticker on this ETF you're referring to?
  • tomjefs
    On LSE it is AIGC. I tried that and various DJ ones (AGCP) but couldn't find it in "Quotes".

    The fact sheet is at http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/updates/documen...

    Maybe you can shed some light on it?
  • Thanks, tomjefs. This is an overseas fund - we only focus on U.S.-based funds. However, the difference in its performance vs. other commodity funds could have to do with the weightings of the commodities within the fund, since all of them vary with what they hold, when they hold it, when contracts are rolled over and so on.
  • tomjefs
    Ok, I'm trying to get a sense of why commodities seem to be uniquely (?) down since June 2008, despite the end of the commodity bull run.

    If we take S&P GSCI Commodity Index (a similar US index) is its performance similar to AIGC? If not what holdings do you think are the key differences propping up its performance; if they are similar in performance I'm back to my original question: why are commodities (except gold) lagging most other sectors?

    Also, do you think the currency exchange is a big or small factor on final pricing? AIGC is quoted in dollars but my portfolio is in UK sterling.
  • tomjefs
    I found the US ticker:

    http://www.etftrends.com/etf/DJP/
  • Hi tomjefs,

    DJP could likely be down 35%+ since July 2008 because of the commodities correction, and this is the case with nearly all the commodity funds we track with the exception of gold. USO, GSG, DBC...they are all down at least 30% since the July 2008 highs, if not more. They've got a lot of ground to make up after falling so far off the highs. This year, however, many commodity funds have moved back up above their 200-day moving averages and are in positive territory ytd.

    And yes, fluctuations in currency is one of the risk factors when investing overseas - here's more information: http://investopedia.com/terms/c/currencyrisk.asp.
  • tomjefs
    Thanks again Tom. Always prompt as well which I appreciate.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Special Report

Recent TV Appearances

Now Available:

The ETF Trend
Following Playbook

ETF Trends' new book is now available. Click here for details. Or order online from one of these bookstores:
Amazon        Barnes and Noble


iMoney

ETF Trends' book iMoney is available. Click here for details. Or order online from one of these bookstores:
Amazon        Amazon