How Rising Interest Rates May Affect ETFs and the Economy

June 05, 2009 at 3:00 pm by Kevin Grewal      Bookmark and Share

The recent strength of the stock market and exchange traded funds (ETFs) has come with a price: rising interest rates.  But how exactly will this affect the overall health of the economy?

Several economists believe that a rise in interest rates could potentially undo the recovery of corporate profits and the housing sector, two areas that equity investors have been banking on as they bid stock prices higher.  This could potentially be detrimental and send the markets in another downward spiral.

To add fuel to the fire, a surge in interest rates makes it harder for individuals to obtain mortgages and fattens up an already outrageous amount of debt held by the federal government, adding costs to the taxpayer.

Now that we know the effects of a hike in interest rates, what exactly is causing it?  Michael Cosgrove, a Dallas economist, suggests that interest rates are rising because the fear factor in the global economy is starting to fade. There is also a huge supply of Treasury debt that is coming to the market, reports Mark Trumbull of the Christian Science Monitor.

The concept is fairly simple.  As investors become more confident in the stock market, they buy up more equity and less government debt.  This causes government borrowing rates to increase.

Most recently, the interest rates on a 10-year Treasury note have shot up from 2.93% in April to 3.68% on June 1 and yields on Treasuries continue to edge upward. As a result, some prominent investors have gone as far as to say that the Treasury market is in a bubble and will soon burst.

  • iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr US Treasury ETF (IEF): down 7.9% for the year and has a yield of 3.8%

  • Vanguard Extended Dur Trsy Idx ETF (EDV): down 35.8% for the year and has a yield of 3.9%

Kevin Grewal contributed to this article.

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  • Justin
    "The concept is fairly simple. As investors become more confident in the stock market, they buy up more equity and less government debt. This causes government borrowing rates to increase."

    Yeah simple concept but entirely wrong! Look at how low equity volume has been these last few weeks! If people were getting out of govt debt and into equities, volume would be higher, not lower. The market has done well over the last few weeks but not in terms of volume. Just less people investing more money, or who knows, maybe inflation?

    T-Bill interest rates are going up because most people aren't stupid enough to invest in a long term t-bill when the government is printing money like a mother! So to counter inflation, of course they want a higher interest rate. Unreal! are you serious? why did you even write this article? are you trying to mislead your readers? jesus christ.
  • john
    These are what not to buy. What to buy? TBT? and?
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