Why Oil ETFs Can Lose As Prices Increase

April 01, 2009 at 12:00 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Understanding why the oil exchange traded fund (ETF) occasionally lags behind jumps in oil prices is a simple matter of knowing how it works.

United States Oil (USO) is the largest ETF that tracks the commodity. It followed the 77% drop of crude prices between July and December. But Kevin Baker for TheStreet explains that although oil prices have risen 45% since the low in 2008, the ETF went down another 4.3%.

What’s happening highlights the challenges that ETFs trading futures encounter. During bullish times, when the price of oil is expected to rise, funds can end up paying contract prices that are higher than spot prices, a situation called “contango.” Each time an oil ETF rolls contracts forward a month during periods of contango its return is eroded.

USO holds long positions on oil futures, rolling them forward each month. Three factors impact the ETF:

  1. Changes in the spot price
  2. Interest income on uninvested cash
  3. The roll yield

USO’s prospectus warns of such a situation: a negative “roll yield” could cause the net asset value of USO to deviate significantly from crude’s spot price.

  • United States Oil (USO): down 12.4% year-to-date; up 7.8% for one month

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  • JamesFowlkes
    It is too bad that this occurs but it is definitely written in the prospectus that it is possible. Always an issue with these ETFs that attempt to trade futures. It is still a great opportunity to take part in commodity price changes just sometimes it might not do quite what you wish.
  • D. Cole
    Is this true for UNG too?
  • Donato
    D. Cole . . .
    Yes. This will happen with UNG also. Unless you do pure technical analysis, it is wise to know a little something about an ETF (or any security) before you put your money on the table. It only takes a minute or two to read the fund summary and glance at the holdings. This information can be found on a multitude of web sites; Yahoo is a common source that is easy to navigate. See link below:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ung
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