Why Brazil and Canada’s ETFs Are Poised to Ride Out Downturn

April 16, 2009 at 12:30 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Some countries are poised to ride out this economic downturn better than most, and they can offer exchange traded fund (ETF) investors some good options for their portfolios once potential long-term uptrends emerge.

Brazil and Canada are in good positions for the economic meltdown, because of these areas of strength:

  1. Falling interest rates
  2. Operating on long-term double surpluses
  3. They possess items other countries fund valuable, i.e. commodity-rich

Imari Love for Morningstar reports that with the major instability we’ve seen recently in currency exchange rates, a country with a current account surplus offers investors an important source of protection. A current account surplus also signals an inherent competitive advantage within a country; essentially, the world has more of a need for the country’s products than vice-versa. Both of these countries are rich with commodities other countries really need.

Countries that cut interest rates are also in the midst of stimulating consumer spending, which in turn , liven up economic growth. While cutting rates can lead to higher inflation and a weaker currency, the current account surplus again offers some protection. Compared to the other countries that are cutting rates and carry a large deficit, these countries are sitting pretty.

Long-term economic profiles for Brazil and Canada mean there are easier says ahead for them, than most. These countries are showing strong fundamentals while near-term indicators are not yet ripe, however, this means steady growth is ahead:

  • Brazil: The Bovespa is up 8.26% year to date after dropping 70% in 2008; iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) is up 24.6% year-to-date

  • Canada: The Canadian market is down 4.36% year to date, after falling by more than 35% in 2008; iShares MSCI Canada (EWC) is up 5.5% year-to-date

Share this post:
  • email
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Tipd
  • Reddit
  • StumbleUpon
  • Facebook
  • Technorati
  • Google Bookmarks
  • TwitThis

Tags: , , , , , ,

Subscribe to Our Daily E-mail Newsletter

Enter your e-mail address below to sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter, the Daily Market Update. We will never share your e-mail address with third parties.

Subscribe to Our RSS Feed

Click here to subscribe to our RSS feed

  • eliz
    Great site with useful info but some sloppy work:

    - Three countries?? Just two by my count

    - Chart above shows EWZ well above 200-day but in ETF Analyzer table, it is nearly 5% below. Can we rely on your table's info??
  • Tom Lydon
    Hi Eliz,

    Thanks for your comment. There are programming differences with the charts between various providers, which can make the tech aspect frustrating sometimes. We recommend you use the analyzer itself to view the 200-day moving average.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Special Report

Recent TV Appearances

Now Available:

The ETF Trend
Following Playbook

ETF Trends' new book is now available. Click here for details. Or order online from one of these bookstores:
Amazon        Barnes and Noble


iMoney

ETF Trends' book iMoney is available. Click here for details. Or order online from one of these bookstores:
Amazon        Amazon