How a Changing Global Economy Affects ETF Investing

April 22, 2009 at 2:00 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

ETF british poundAs many developed countries are stagnating, and may remain so for the time being, exchange traded fund (ETF) investors are looking overseas for new opportunities. Take the denizens of the United Kingdom, for example.

It is likely that the United Kingdom’s growth may come to a crawl in the coming couple of years as a result of large debt and high taxes, writes Stephen Womack for Mail Online. Investors are becoming increasingly worried about a long-term decline. That’s why at a recent trade meeting, investors and savers wanted to know how to structure their savings for a changing world.

The International Monetary Fund projects Britain’s recession will continue into 2010, longer than any other developed nation. It is also estimated that the government borrowings will increase to 11% of GDP by 2010, or two times the average of G20 nations.

The sterling pound is down around 25 cents against the dollar and 12 cents against the euro. The long-term aspects don’t look all that appealing either with exports down and the country’s North Sea oil drying up.

Since the structural economic problems in western countries won’t be easily fixed, many investors are shifting their attention to the East, or newer economies. Some investors are also looking into countries with high interest rates, but it should be noted that there are risks in exchange rates.

At the trade meeting, one investor noted that there has always been a natural rise and fall in how nations perform in the long term, and that we’re currently in another big shift with the United States and United Kingdom seeing some decline.

This highlights the versatility of ETFs – you can use them to make plays on different world events, shifting climates and changing trends. Just because one area is in a funk doesn’t mean that every area is. Use ETFs to spot new opportunities and have an entry and exit strategy.

  • CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB): up 0.6% year-to-date

  • iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU): down 9% year-to-date

  • CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE): down 7.2% year-to-date

  • Barclays GEMS Asia-8 ETN (AYT): down 0.1% year-to-date

Max Chen contributed to this article.

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  • eliz
    I don't get it. I agree with much of what Tom Lydon says about the advantages of using ETFs and using the 200 dma as a guide for entry and exit. The returns of the ETFTrends managed funds are pretty poor though - negative in 2008 and 2009 and 2% over 5 years. It didn't even beat the S&P in some years. Obviously you could have done better in bonds or even CDs. So there must be something about putting this system into practice that doesn't work?
  • Hi Eliz-
    I agree that 2% annualized over the past 5 years isn't something to jump up and down about, but compared to -6.7% annualized during the same period for the S&P 500, we're thrilled. With more ETFs available than ever today, we're even more excited about the next 5 years. Best of luck!
    Tom
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