Yet Another Low for the Dow – 4 Things to Do Now

March 05, 2009 at 1:13 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Dow ETFsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged to new lows today, dashing the hopes of exchange traded fund (ETF) investors who were feeling optimistic after Wednesday’s positive move.

The Dow sank to its lowest close since April 15, 1997. It’s 53.4% off its record high in October 2007, and is down 42.3% since mid-September.

Today, investors largely reacted to a lack of economic stimulus in China, and also braced for the release of more negative unemployment news, reports The Wall Street Journal. The numbers are expected to show 14 straight months of job losses. Financials also scared investors: Citigroup (C) dropped below $1 for the first time today; and Moody’s said it may downgrade the credit of Wells Fargo (WFC). Traders say the plunge this time isn’t panic – it’s sheer exasperation.

Liz Ann Sanders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab, has a few pointers for investors, courtesy of the Tech Ticker on Yahoo! Finance. We’ve expanded on them below, too:

  • If you don’t have a plan, get one. It’s not too late to start one, or if you’ve become derailed in the market madness, it isn’t too late to get your old plan back on track. Our plan is to employ a trend-following strategy: when an area is above the 200-day, we’re in; when it’s below the trendline or 8% off the recent high, we sell. No questions, no emotions.
  • If you’re going to panic, make it a more controlled panic. If you’re still in the markets and uneasy about it, think about selling one-third of your portfolio. If the market declines another 5%, let another third go. This stems the bleeding, but also keeps one foot in – just in case.
  • Don’t try to find the bottom. This goes back to the first point of sticking to the strategy. First of all, it just won’t work, if only because the bottom won’t really be identifiable for months or years after the fact. Second, it takes the focus off looking for trends. Watch to see what’s moving up instead of trying to guess what’s going to stop falling. You might not be first in, but if you get in on an uptrend that sticks, you’ll be in early enough. Be patient.
  • Don’t forget about saving after the bull market reappears. This market is a stark reminder that we all need to have cash put away not for just a rainy day, but for an all-out hailstorm. If you save as you should, when the next recession comes, it won’t be quite so frightening if it becomes as deep and prolonged as this one.
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  • Frank Lynch
    These markets continue to fall because there is no longer any faith that this administration will do what is needed to deal with the problem. Certainly they know how bad it is. If they won't tell us, it has to be enormous. There is real anger that the big, insolvent banks are being kept on life support when they should be put down. Their political connections are paying off and they are being rewarded for destroying the economy.

    The administration is destroying wealth instead of debt. Reducing mortage interest payments is useless. The debt still remains. Many (most) payers will go back into default. If house prices have declined 30% then reduce the principal by 30%. There would be squeals, but so what. Congress could just do it if wanted to. No need to deal with it on a case by case basis in the courts.

    There is no obligation to keep paying on a mortgage that is underwater. Businesses do similar things all the time. The loan is secured by the house. If the bank didn't care about valuations and qualifications, they can deal with the result.

    Obama's main support is the super rich, who can survive any depression, the idealists, and the 40% who don't pay taxes. They will be taken care of. I don't believe he cares at all about the markets, the savers, or the retirees whose life savings have been devastated.
  • MSK
    Fundamentals first. Attaching yourself to a technical trend "months or years later" may be "safer," but it will most likely come at the expense of return. I suppose that makes sense since lower risk should have less reward. But, it's something to be aware of.

    As for the market losing faith in certain things, I will only say that this market has been declining for quite some time, notwithstanding the pontificators that like to lazily link cause with effect. Politicians only wish they had as much influence on markets as some would attribute to them.

    That said, the market is being driven by the same greedy people who were incapable of factoring risk into their grandiose schemes. Now that those schemes have blown up in their face, they don't want to take any of the loss. Like cry-babbies and whiners, they are sitting on the sidelines waiting for Uncle Sam to eat the loss.

    It shouldn't be done. While there is no good solution to the mess, taxpayers eating the loss will not be without consequences down the road. It will establish yet another moral hazard that will only encourage even more brazen risk-taking. It's time Wall Street re-learn the lessons of risk and return.
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