Possibilities With Foreign Stocks, ETFs

December 06, 2008 at 4:00 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Foreign ETFsOver-exposure to domestic markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) may be detrimental during times such as these.

On average, American investors have anywhere from 2%-20% exposure in foreign markets. This can prove dangerous for a few reasons.

Tim Hanson for The Motley Fool says that this leaves you too vulnerable to the slowing in the United States’ economy. Declining home values, a weaker dollar and a beat up portfolio are not a good mix.

Second, when you ignore foreign markets, you’re all but assuring that you are going to miss out on the greatest economic growth forecast to come in the next 10 to 15 years. From a growth standpoint, China, India, Brazil and even Vietnam and Mexico have more potential going forward.

While growth has slowed or even reversed course in most markets in the world, domestic and global, this won’t always be the case. Valuations on emerging markets may be looking ripe in the near future.

Foreign markets have been beat up along with everyone else. Some might take longer to recover, while others may bounce back nicely. Be sure to have a strategy in place before jumping back into the market. The 50-day moving average is a good place to start, and moving incrementally instead of all at once will give you more control.

  • PowerShares BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund (ADRA): down 51.3% year-to-date

Asia ETFs

  • Vanguard European (VGK): down 49.8% year-to-date

Europe ETFs

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  • Michael
    Tom, I've just ordered your book but won't get it here (to Germany) for several weeks. Maybe you can help me before that. I assume your principles apply to investing from Europe as well. I have three questions:

    1. Do you apply you buy/sell strategies to inverse (not leveraged) ETFs as well? That would indicate buying, say, and Eurostoxx 50 short ETF now as it is well above both the 50 and 200-day lines, although (hopefully) the end of the bear market is near. Or would it be better to just hang on till the upswing?

    2. Do you use MACD or other indicators besides the 50/200 moving average?

    3. What if an ETF falls more than 8% off the recent (6 month?) and continues up and down but still without hitting the 50-day line? What would be the signal to re-buy in that case?

    This is an exciting site--the best I've found for ETFs!
  • Tom Lydon
    Hi Michael,

    Yes, the buy/sell strategy can be applied to other ETF types, but with inverse and leveraged funds, there tends to be more volatility, so you could find yourself buying and selling more frequently. You may want to consider a shorter-term moving average with those.

    While we're aware of the MACD and other indicators, we only use the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

    If you are holding something that drops 8% off high, our strategy is to sell it even if it is still above the trend line. That money from the sell is considered a free agent and can be used to buy any ETF - not necessarily the one you just sold.
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