Stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are back-and-forth following a weak manufacturing reading this morning.

The Institute for Supply Management said that its index fell to 38.9, the lowest reading in 26 years, says Ellen Simon for the Associated Press.

Any reading below 50 signals a contraction, and it’s far below the expected reading of 41.5.

Construction spending has also fallen, but by a smaller than expected amount, reports Martin Crutsinger for the Associated Press. A rebound in nonresidential activity helped to offset weakness in the sector. Many economists expected a 0.8% drop in spending, but it only fell 0.3%.

• Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI), down 34.7% year-to-date

• iShares Dow Jones US Industrial (IYJ), down 36.% year-to-date

The start of a new month brings a lot of reflection about where we’ve been and where we’re going. The early days of November are no exception, especially since October was one of the worst months in history. A Barron’s poll has the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending 14% higher than Friday’s close, says Aaron Task for the Tech Ticker.

The Washington editor noted that the kind of “naked panic” seen in September and October often precedes big turning points.

Will it be so? The next two months could be interesting to watch.

Tags: Dow Jones Industrial Average, IYJ, Sector ETFs, XLI