ETFs In ‘09: Will They Be Half Empty Or Half Full?

November 09, 2008 at 1:00 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Exchange Traded Funds In 2009 When it comes to the stock market and exchange traded funds (ETFs), is the glass half empty or half full?

Janice Revell for CNN Money asked big money brains for their take on the economy and the stock market for the coming year, and to rate their optimism from 1-10, with 1 being “apocalyptic” and ten as “no worries.” The economists came out empty while the market researchers were optimistic.

Economists such as Jared Bernstein and Mark Zandi for Moody’s were the lower scores at 3, claiming that, among other factors, a flat GDP, recession-like growth rates, and peaked unemployment by the end of 2008, perhaps around 8%, would cause a long pause for the economy at large.

Most economists do not expect a turnaround until 2010 or late 2009, because of tighter policy response, consumers trying to cut their debt and finding stability within the housing market, with home prices finally taking root.

The market prognosticators have their glasses half full as the potential and growth prospects for the stock market present themselves during this time period. Ed Yardeni believes in the world governments being effective and having their way, with an S&P rebound by mid-09.

Both Jerry Grantham and Barry Ritholz see the opportunity with the S&P 500, as it could drop below 900-1000, giving opportunity. Brian Wesbury is the most positive of all, giving a 9 and going the contrarian route, with fortunes to be made as everyone goes the opposite direction.

Where do you stand? Tell us in the comments!

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  • MRRESONSIBLE
    HISTORICALLY, THE U.S. RECESSION (MAYBE DEFINED FOR APRIL 2008) WILL LAST UNTIL APPROXIMATELY FEBRUARY 2010 (ON AVERAGE 22 MONTHS). THE STOCK MARKET REACHED ITS HIGH IN OCTOBER 2007. USUALLY, THE STOCK MARKET'S DURATION INTO THE RECESSION IS 58.4 PERCENT OF THE RECESSION. THE STOCK DECLINES ON AVERAGE 14.4 MONTHS SO THE THEORETICALLY, THE MARKET COULD BOTTOM IN JANUARY 2009.

    THERE ARE MANY INFLUENCING FACTORS, OF COURSE, SOME OF WHICH ARE: STIMULUS PACKAGES, %OF MARKET DECLINE OF STOCK MARKET DECLINE, INTEREST RATES, SAVINGS RATE, CURRENCY RATIOS, WEATHER, ETC. BUT THE THE LONG TERM FACTOR THAT I THINK WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE IS U.S. DEMOGRAPHICS (IS THIS COUNTRY READY? TAKE A LOOK AT THE POPULATION SHOPPING AT WALMART, DIET & EXERCISE); HEALTH AND WELFARE OF CHILDREN, REFLECTED BY FAMILY SUPPORT.
  • It's been couple of months since this was posted, we're till waiting for good news. I guess many of us are voting close to "1"; it's very difficult these days to say we have no worries.
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