The $64K Question: What Do I Do Now?

October 28, 2008 at 11:00 am by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Investing Advice We received this question from an ETF Trends reader this weekend:

What do you suggest for right now? Our portfolio is down to almost half its value and everything seems to be trading below the trend line (except for short ETFs). Do you recommend:

a) Liquidating the portfolio and waiting for things to start rising

b) Hanging in there and adjusting the portfolio when something starts to move upward?

c) Liquidating the portfolio and investing in short ETFs, gradually transferring to others as the market turns?

Would love your advice – my husband and I disagree and need someone to resolve the dispute.

You’re not alone in asking this question. Investors everywhere are in your shoes, stunned by a downturn that is longer and steeper than anyone had anticipated it would be.

If you followed our plan of exiting when a fund is 8% off the high or below its 200-day moving average, you’re doing okay. But if you’re a buy-and-hold investor, these are the kinds of things you might be asking.

Now, while we’d love to help you out on the home front, we can’t do much for you there, as we’re not licensed marriage counselors. But what we can help you with – your portfolio – should help keep the squabbling to a minimum.

Many experts feel that the horse is already out of the barn, but things might get worse before they get better. Here’s a suggested simple plan for coping that’s easy to follow, will help stop the bleeding and helps to remove emotions from the process. If you follow this, you’re not bailing entirely on your portfolio, you’re just taking steps to protect yourself in case the market continues south:

  • Sell one-third of your invested equity positions now.
  • If the remaining two-thirds decline 5%, sell another third.

We might like to think we’re at or near a bottom, but the truth is, nobody knows.

If you sell a portion of your portfolio now, however, you need to be committed to get that cash back in when the trends reverse themselves. To that end, our entry strategy is as follows:

  • When a fund crosses above its 50-day moving average, put 25% of the value of your portfolio.
  • When the fund goes up 5%, put another 25% in.

By the time this happens, the 200-day moving average should be well within sight, and things should begin operating in line with our normal buy parameters once again.

The truth is that bear markets often end with a whimper rather than a bang, says Jason Zweig for the Wall Street Journal. Investors tend to believe that a market can only hit bottom when a huge number of investors dump everything, called “capitulation.”

But the problem is that no one can define this moment – not even market pundits. Like many other events, it’s best identified in hindsight.

Without any indisputable signs that a bottom has been reached, we might just be better off sticking to the strategy and waiting for the trends to appear.

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  • Aase
    I heard your name- Tom Lydon- today in Andre Horowitz' podcast from 1/5/09. From there I went to this website, very, very interesting!

    My question is: could the general buy/sell 'rules' mentioned on this website be applied to mutual funds (F-class) as well? (I realize that mutual funds are only traded once a day).

    We are in a very diversified portfolio of 7 mutual funds,- but no ETFs. Since Jan. 2008 we have consistently been "$ cost averaging" extra cash into stock in a non-401k account every single week, because we are way off our target %stock. We also max 401k contributions in another account. We are in for the long term, but it seems that your "rules" would have worked out well even for the mutual funds..... Alternatively we could use the extra cash and buy EFTs in the future, according to the "rules". Thanks
  • Tom Lydon
    Aase, this strategy can be applied to nearly any kind of security. Some are more volatile than others - individual stocks, for example, might see bigger moves in one day than a broad ETF, so you might be doing more buying and selling.
  • godmadescience
    I like the trend-following strategy that Tom teaches here. I wouldn't suggest dollar-cost-averaging with a trend-following strategy, as that could be counterproductive.

    The idea behind trend following is that an ETF that is going up will continue to go up for quite a while. One that is going down will continue to go down. So if it goes up, buy some more. If it goes down, sell some or all of your holdings.

    Dollar-cost-averaging, on the other hand, relies on mean-reversion. If something is going down, it's bound to come back. So if it goes down, buy some more. This is the opposite of the trend-following strategy.

    Buy-and-hold does you good in non-retirement accounts if you want tax efficiency, although I would argue that tax efficiency isn't always worth sitting through a market crash. But why do it in retirement accounts where you don't have to pay taxes anyway? I don't see any reason not to follow trends in retirement accounts.
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