October 15, 2008 at 12:00 pm by Tom Lydon
The commodities market has done a complete 180, and the market for the bare ingredients that make the world turn have fallen, taking related stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) on a downward slide.
The commodity bull market of the past seven years has ended its run, as the financial panic sweeps across the globe and has filtered its way into consumers pockets and wallets.
Clifford Krause for The New York Times reports that the prices for many commodities peaked amid fears of permanent shortage that goes along with surging global demand. Staples such as wheat and corn have since dropped more than 40%.
Oil has also fallen 44%, and metals such as aluminum, copper, iron and nickel have tumbled by one-third or more.
The trend seems to be downward as traders weigh the prospect that the global economic crisis will lead to sharp drops in demand.
The main concern is whether prices will drop all the way to long-term norms or whether Asia’s continuing economic expansion will create a floor and we’ll see a repeat of events in the first half of this year.
The good news for consumers is that gasoline prices have eased, and the timing could not have been better, as prices for most commodities still remain elevated in comparison to past standards. Although, in looking at the chart to the left, we’re nowhere near the spikes seen in corn and copper in the 1970s.
Times are tight, though. With the holidays coming up and unemployment growing, consumers need the extra cash wherever they can get it.
The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is down 17.5% year-to-date, and 43% off its July 2 high.
Tags: Agriculture, Copper, Corn, Energy, GSG, Oil, Retail & Consumer
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October 22nd, 2008 at 8:10 am
Is it too too late to short. I think wait for a pull up? (or is it still called a pull back) before getting in?
The dollar is getting stronger and stronger and outside of oil, commodities seem to be getting hit hard.
If that’s a correct interpretation,than I hope someone can add their opinion on shorting this ETF
Staples
thedarksize.com
October 23rd, 2008 at 7:41 am
Investors who are comfortable shorting certain areas of the market and are aware of the risks involved (especially with commodities, where there is big volatility) can consider funds that are currently above their 200-day moving averages. It’s especially important to stick to a sell discipline in these areas. Just make sure this is right for you and your objectives.