What ETF Investors Have On Their Minds

September 30, 2008 at 7:36 am by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

ETF Question and Answer

With all the news and uncertainty going on in the markets, many investors are wondering what to do with their exchange traded funds (ETFs) and their portfolios. Here are some questions that we’ve received from readers and wanted to share with all of you.

Now that the Dow has suffered its largest one-day point loss ever, as an ETF investor, what do I do?

We use and recommend a trend-following strategy, which involves being in those areas of the market that are trending higher and being out when they’re not. We get in only when a fund is above its 200-day moving average, while we get out when a fund drops 8% off its recent high or below the 200-day moving average.

Right now, very few areas are trending higher, and as a result we’re 100% in cash. We’re waiting for this storm to pass.

What if I’m a buy-and-hold investor?

Obviously, buy-and-hold investors are in it for the long-term, riding out those peaks and valleys. However, the recent market activity has to be making even the sturdiest buy-and-hold investor a little seasick as they wait for the markets to move higher once again. If you have this strategy, you don’t necessarily have to take this if it’s become too much for you. If it would make you feel more comfortable to sell all or part of a position while the volatility continues, do so. When the trends appear again and you’re ready, get back in.

How do I know when it’s time to get back into the markets?

Going back to our trend-following strategy, we wait until funds have moved above their 200-day moving average before we consider them. We look at other things too, such as diversity within the holdings, expense ratios, trading volume, fundamentals of the sector or area the fund represents, and so on. But above all else, a fund has to be above its long-term trend line.

What we don’t recommend doing is chasing performance, running from area to area, looking for the “hot” fund or trying to call the bottom of a tanking sector. For more detailed information on this strategy, read our trend-following report.

Is my money safe at the bank?

If your bank is FDIC-insured, it means that your account is protected for up to $100,000 per depositor (not per account, but per individual). The $100,000 amount applies to all depositors of an insured bank, except for owners of certain retirement accounts, which are insured up to $250,000 per owner, per insured bank.

Is my money market fund safe?

Ask your brokerage where your money is being held if you aren’t sure. If it’s in Treasuries, then your money may be safer than it would be in other types of funds. Some of the money market funds that “broke the buck” in recent weeks did so because of exposure to Lehman Brothers.

For our clients, we have selected the Schwab Government Money Fund, which invests in treasuries issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government, and it’s the safest money fund there.

Is my brokerage safe?

Your investments at your brokerage are insured by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which is for both securities and cash, in the event of a broker-dealer failure. SIPC provides up to $500,000 of protection for each account.

Is this volatility ever going to end?

Yes. Over time, the overall trend of the markets is up, interrupted by periods of high volatility such as the one we’re in now. Eventually, we will recover from this, too, and we’ll begin to see areas that are once again moving higher.

Any other questions?

Leave us a comment, and we’ll get back to you with an answer!

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  • TLy
    What if I am an income investor? These ETFs are down so much now that the yields on them are in double digit range. Would it be wise to buy and hold now to get the benefits of higher yields?

    Thank you.
  • Tom Lydon
    Yes, the yields are higher, but please understand the value of the bonds can decline if the ratings on the bonds are down-graded or if the current credit situation gets worse.
  • Bill Hungate
    Tom, what about the short ETF's in a Bear market such as this? Is there any reason we shouldn't move some money into those ETF's? Do your buy and exit guidelines apply to them? Are they different in any significant way from "normal" ETFs?

    Thank you,

    Bill Hungate
  • stott2
    1. I am unclear on a couple of aspects of the buying and selling with the 200 MA. What if it switches back and forth around the 200 MA? Let's say it barely goes above the 200 MA and I buy. The next day it only drops 1-2% but is now below the 200 MA. Do I sell? And vice-versa. One day it barely goes below the 200 MA and I sell. If the next day it barely goes above the 200 MA, do I buy? In a sideways moving market this could happen quite often and could make us get in and out of the ETFs alot.
    2. Is the 200 MA the only one we will follow? You mentioned in 1 article that if the line goes below the 50 MA to be aware but only sell if it goes below the 200 MA. So you don't look at these 2 MAs together? Do you look for them to cross?
    3. Another commentator suggested following the 10 month simple moving average. Any thoughts?
    Thanks.
    Alan
  • Hi Alan,

    1. Give yourself a 5% cushion in that instance.
    2. That was a strategy we outlined when the markets started to show a little recovery and positions were 20-30% below their 200-day moving averages. Investors who waited until that point would have missed out on a big part of any rally. Now that things have normalized some, we're back to the 200-day moving average.
    3. The 10-month can be good if you'd like a longer moving average, but we still prefer the 200-day, since it's neither too long nor too short a period.
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