An ETF Entry Plan Is As Important As An Exit One

September 23, 2008 at 3:00 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

On the flip side of having an exit strategy when it comes to your exchange traded funds (ETFs), eventually there’s a time to get back in.

Is it now? There, after all, have been days with such high volatility that some funds rocket above their long-term trend lines, only to head south a day or two later. That’s why we do have our strategy of only investing in those funds that have moved above their trend lines, but we also look at the fundamentals. Was that just an unusually big day? Or is the trend moving up?

Many ETFs in the financial and other sectors are still way down. Some are off their highs by as much as 50%, and lose more on the market’s worst days.

Having an entry plan is just as important as an exit one: you don’t want to get in, thinking the worst is over, then finding yourself selling at a loss a few days later. Look at the trends and those areas that are moving instead.

We cover our strategy in more detail in a trend-following plan story we wrote earlier this year.

This strategy is also covered at length in our book, iMoney: Profitable ETF Strategies for Every Investor.

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  • Tim
    At this point, it would appear that "entry plans" into the stock market are akin to the derivative plans of banks. In other words, Las Vegas style, high stakes, gambling with your future. And you can bet your house John Barack Hussein McBama is NOT going to bail out your IRA. A gentle day in the market now is up or down 200 points, while a volatile day is up or down 400 points. Are investors who don't pay attention to the financial comings & goings of the news really ready to stomach these kind of gyrations?

    I unfortunately turned on a Fox Business news show Friday night. Their great advice was "don't open your 401K statements. Just throw them in the trash." Right.
  • Donato
    Tim . . .
    In these Volatile times, the “entry plan” may be more critical to success than the exit strategy. Four days before you posted your above comment, I pulled out more profits (on Friday) from the market than I ever have before. It used to take me four months to make that kind of money working for someone else.

    Most of that money went into the market on the prior Monday. I was able to scrape together a bit more later, and it went into the market on Tuesday. So, my entry plan was paramount to my profit taking a few days later, when it all came back out on Friday.

    And, by the way, it was all in financials. Simply put, I’ve got limit orders in place to buy down as the market crashes. Usually, buying down is an act of desperation, but my strategy is well thought and planned out. In the three trading days this week I’ve opened and closed several positions, each for five to ten percent gain, they add up fast! I don’t really want to hold positions for such a short period of time, but that is what Mr. Market is telling me to do. Volatility is my friend and current money maker; try (UYG), buy below $20 per share, then sell above $20. Move that line up or down as the times change.

    Ironically, I’ll be somewhat saddened when the market turns around and begins it’s bull run in two or three years . . .
  • Tim
    Donato,

    Thanks for your post. I've done great in the past week too. I moved from all cash heavily into two positions & found myself up a very quick 26% in DGP (& cashed out yesterday) & also up 19% in CEF & still holding that.

    The larger point is that (probably) both you & I have lost hefty money on this volatile market at times too this year. I don't think this is an "amateur" market to try & time bottoms & entry points. Especially for folks who don't pay attention to what's going beyond listening to CNBC or Fox Business news. This is a vicious market, in all sectors. & you sure don't sound like an amateur investor by the way!

    Cash is going to be king at the end of this (if we still have a currency that is). I fear there will be a lot of people completely wiped out when things do start to turn around, & they'll all have to start over from scratch. My opinion is that we're no where near a market bottom right now, & it sounds like you don't either.

    Continued good luck with your investing! & thanks for the UYG tip.
  • Donato
    Tim . . .
    Cash is King!

    Very early this year Warren Buffett said publicly that we are headed for a depression, and that it will last longer and be deeper than anyone is willing to admit. I did not accept that at the time, and yes, I started loosing money in the market.

    Once I started studying the financial turmoil, I got sick to my stomache. After all, I "retired" young and want my current assets to support me, rather than me support them. Once the sickness began to dissipate, and I came to accept that Buffett was right on track, my motivation to make money in the market returned with a new intensity.

    I have since recovered all of my losses, and am now well into the proper side of the balance sheet.

    And by the way, my TV gets it's signal from an antenna, total lifetime viewing of CNBC might equal fifteen minutes. Staying insulated from the fear, hype, and other emotions of the "general public" has probably helped me make better business decisions regarding my investments.

    Good luck to you also . . .
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