ETF Options Can Be A Predictive Tool

March 24, 2008
by Tom Lydon

Crystallball Put/call options ratios are high for certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) and stocks right now.

Mark Fightmaster for Schaeffer's Research reports that the Select Sector SPDR Health Care Fund(XLVhas a put/call volume ratio of 320.66 or 320.6 puts for every call while the Select Sector SPDR Metals and Mining (XME) has experienced 155.7 puts traded for every call. While the numbers are extreme, the actual underlying stocks see a light trading volume on a day-to-day basis.

Options can be used as a means of predicting the market's direction, says John Summa for Investopedia. By tracking the ratio of puts to calls, you can get a sense of how traders are feeling. If the volume of puts is high, a market bottom could be looming. Too many calls, and the top could be near.

However, do with this what you will: options traders are wrong 90% of the time. Be sure that if you're going along with them, you're not just getting swept up in a frenzy. As with any kind of investing, keeping your emotions out of it will serve you well.

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