Five ETF Sectors To Recession-Proof Your Portfolio

February 14, 2008 at 2:07 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

LifejacketThe signs are all there that we’re in a recession: many exchange traded fund (ETF) sectors have taken a hit, Congress is calling hearings, the Federal Reserve is talking about more rate cuts, housing, retail and unemployment numbers are unimpressive at best.

When will the government finally admit what we’ve all suspected for some time now – that the recession has already started? We can’t answer that, but what we can tell you is that now is the time to start thinking about how you can protect your portfolio. The last thing you want to do is wait until it’s too late.

Here are a few sectors that have been bucking the trend:

Agriculture
Let’s face it: no matter what the economy looks like, people gotta eat. Sure, in times of belt-tightening, you might cut back on the beluga caviar, but you’ll still want nutritious and low-cost foods such as bread, milk, meat and vegetables. Apparently, ETFs are on a "see food" diet.

Forget about what’s happening in the United States – the world’s population is growing, too. Population booms in emerging markets such as China and India mean, among other things, that there are more mouths than ever to feed.Corn4

By 2030, our planet will be home to 8.2 billion people. We’re going to be a hungrier bunch, too. The average caloric intake per person per day now is 2,600 calories. In the developed world, it’s even higher: 3,200 per day. The average worldwide food intake will climb to 3,000 calories a day by 2030.

(As an aside, no one needs to eat that much: it takes 3,500 calories to gain a pound of fat. After a week or two of 3,200 per day, we hope you’ve left some money aside for new pants).

While your waistline might expand from all that extra food, the demand for agriculture could help related ETFs fatten up, too.

There’s also the matter of the energy bill President Bush signed in December. Refineries are required to replace 36 gallons of biofuel by 2022, a move that’s going to increase the production of corn, sugar and palm oil. No more than 15 billion of those gallons can come from corn-based ethanol, though, to keep food prices in check.

  • PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
  • Market Vectors Global Agribusiness (MOO)
  • PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)


Gold

If any investors had doubted gold as a safe haven, it’s certainly not showing in the numbers. Gold02 Investors are snapping up the commodity at such a rate that it seems like a new record is reached every week. On Monday, gold futures surged to $926.70 and there are, in fact, who believe that gold could even hit $1,000 per ounce sometime this year.

What’s behind the price surge? High energy prices (crude oil strength is a primary driver of gold prices), geo-political tensions and the continuing weakness of the U.S. dollar all come into play in the cost of gold. There are also those unplanned events that can cause already sky-high prices to rise even further. For example, the power outages in South Africa that brought production to a standstill.

  • streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD)
  • Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)
  • iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Silver
With gold, it’s a case of the squeaky wheel getting the grease, but silver isn’t anything toSterling_silver_rings_2 turn up one’s nose at. In 2007, silver rose 18% and it’s showing similarly strong performance this year.

The primary problem with silver is that it’s subject to more volatile swings than gold. It’s used in industrial applications because of its use as a thermal and electrical conductor, but when industrial demand tapers off in rough economies, so does the demand for silver. However, silver is also useful in water filtration systems, as a wood preservative and in batteries.

  • PowerShares DB Silver (DBS)
  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

Foreign Currency ETFs
Swissfranc150se7may06The U.S. dollar has been slowing for some time now. As the Federal Reserve is sharpening its scissors and talking of cutting interest rates yet again, the dollar is primed to fall even further.

While that’s bad news for the green paper in our wallets, it also makes it a prime time to invest in ETFs that follow foreign currencies. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen have been particularly strong lately.

Today, the yen rose from a one-month low against the dollar after the Japanese economy expanded twice as fast as had been predicted, report Kosuke Goto and Stanley White for Bloomberg. The currency is predicted to continue to keep rising, at least through the end of March.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg users in Switzerland were polled, and they’re optimistic about the prospects of the Swiss franc, Daniel Kruger for Bloomberg says. So far this year, the franc has gained 2.9% against the U.S. dollar.

  • CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)
  • CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)

Bonds
The bond market has taken a bit of a hit to its reputation lately, which hasn’t necessarily been doing its exchange traded funds (ETFs) any favors.

Pic_cityhome At the moment, municipal bonds are having their name dragged through the mud as the insurers behind them are taken to task for all kinds of risky investments related to the subprime mortgage industry.

Morgan Housel for the Motley Fool says that this provides a great opportunity for investors, though. When markets are controlled by fear, investments are sold and that’s your time to swoop in and maybe make a killing.

Despite all the issues surrounding municipal bonds, they are still a good investment, if only for the tax advantages they offer. Interest income is exempt from federal taxes. Factor that in, and they look more appealing than stocks  might.

And even amid the turmoil, these fixed-income investments are still proving themselves as the broader market isn’t quite going in the right direction.

For example, iShares Lehman TIPS (TIP) has returned 15.82% while the S&P 500 lost 5.63% over the past year, reports Jesse Emspak for Investor’s Business Daily. In fact, all iShares fixed-income ETFs have outperformed the S&P since last year, with the smallest gain bringing in 5.36% from iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond (SHV).

  • PowerShares Insured National Muni Bond (PZA)
  • Market Vectors Lehman AMT-Free Int Muni (ITM)
  • iShares S&P National Municipal Bond (MUB)
  • SPDR Lehman Municipal Bond (TFI)
  • PowerShares VRDO Tax-Free Weekly (PVI)
  • SPDR Lehman Short Term Municipal Bond (SHM)
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  • Marion Schultheis
    This is a terrific update. I have formed an investment club for retired women and we only use ETF's, so your newsletter has been extremely helpful.
  • orange
    indian and chinese are now feeding , what were they doing before this?
    majority of them were sleeping without food ? now everybody wants to eat corn grown in US?

    what happened to the dollar, it would be matter of time when the oil and other commodities are traded in euro or aussie dollar
  • Tom Lydon
    Hi Orange,

    They certainly were eating before, but incomes are rising so rapidly in those emerging markets that their populations have more money to spend on food. Naturally, they're looking to eat more and better, which means we need more food to keep up not only with appetites here in the United States, but appetites in those other countries.
  • India and China might want to eat more, but hopefully they eat more healthy food rather than food based on corn, esp. high fructose corn syrup. But wait, here is a (conspriracy) theory. If they eat more gmo based corn products and corn syrup filled items, they should soon be needing more Big Pharma drugs to treat them of all the illnesses they will be acquiring. So the next sector to invest would be Pharma companies, better start buying those call options right now!
  • Tom

    Had a heck of a time finding the comments area. As I am new to your site and it really has ticked me off. that it took me so long to find out about it.

    I have been a longtime follower and investor at times in the Van Eck ETF’s. I happen to have 3 of them on my radar right now, SLX< MOO and finally KOL.

    Which until this evening wasn’t really on my forefront. It appears from a technical standpoint within the past few days that KOL just passed its 50 day MA. Seeing you speak on CNBC recently, I got the impression that in this market that was a good sign to look for. Really in any market!
    Your thoughts, even though I preferred SLX due to the price beat down it took. Not being sure of the steel market, although it does contain 2 of the biggies.1 in Brazil and another. My brain is fried with all the companies in ETF’s tonight, my apologies.
    Is coal done for now? Is China not using as much? figures, that we have lots of.

    I look forward to any replies.

    Staples

    OK..original posted wrong spot, not sure this is even right, give the newbiea break!
  • Tom Lydon
    Hi Staples,

    Glad you found the comments area - the link to comment is always at the end of every post, for future reference.

    As for KOL, it's still far below its 50-day moving average (33.7%). We can't predict what it will do or whether anything is "done," but right now, the trend just isn't there. Maybe in the future it will emerge again, but only time will tell. This is why we wait for the trend to show before considering a fund!
  • Thanks for the road map. I figured if I pasted it on almost every story, sooner or later I'd get it. what do they say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.

    I guwss I was looking at my chart upside down. no wonder I do so much better in my research.

    Seriously...I read the chart wrong some how. Very strange to have completely been that off. I don't recall what chart I used for the info, but being color deficient, other than as far as I know stockcharts.com is the only one with an option for colr deficient people. (FYI...I have no interest or adds or anything to do business wise with stockcharts.com.

    did you notice the big spike in price and volume on KOL, just before the close. Sure it's been happenigwith he bigger banks and stuff, this was very suprising.

    Anyone with athought or an opinion, would love to hear it


    Staples
    thedarksize.com
  • This is a good post, nice to know what's going on in the market. Great resource and time to think if we need to change what we're trading.
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