Oil ETFs and Contango Issues

April 25, 2007 at 1:18 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Oilfutures Industry observers have raised questions over the pricing and performance of exchange traded fund (ETF) -like instruments designed to give investors exposure to crude oil. John Spence for MarketWatch.com reports United States Oil Fund (USO) is a commodity pool whose objective is to reflect the changes in the price of light sweet crude oil. USO is also the oldest and largest of these commodity/futures based ETFs.

USO has come under fire lately as the ETF declined 23% last year, while the spot price of crude oil for immediate delivery fell 11%.  But this is like comparing apples to oranges.  The spot price for oil is based on immediate delivery, while USO invests in futures and has to roll contracts, dealing with contango (longer-dated futures are more expensive than near-month contracts).  There is no actual delivery of oil to the ETF, unlike the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) that actually holds gold bullion.

Because of contango, investors may lose money, but the opposite can happen with backwardation (longer-dated futures are cheaper).  Investors need to understand the issues involved when investing in commodities and futures and providers need to be more aware of education on these products.

Uso

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  • Hey Tom, I definitely agree with your appraisal of the education situation here. Not only is contango just as much of a disadvantage as backwardation is an advantage, but USO and OIL seem to be doing a pretty good job of tracking spot so far this year (95% return correlation). UCR and DBO aren't doing as well, but if you're interested in more numbers, I've recently posted an entry about it.
  • Steve Ragno
    Who cares about the correlations? Investors are interested in returns! Any class action lawsuits againsts these guys at USO for mismanagement and/or misrepresentation of the fund's objectives?
  • Tom Lydon
    The question is whether this is a mismanagement issue or the way the ETF was constructed. The intent was to mirror the price but the way it was structured didn't do what was intended.
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