Top Performing ETFs for 2006

December 29, 2006 at 4:18 pm by Tom Lydon      Bookmark and Share

Winner Once again, global exchange traded funds (ETFs) were the top performers for 2006. 

Booming economic growth in China helped push the China ETFs to the number one and two spots for the year.  iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) and PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China (PGJ) were up 81% and 51% respectively.  Part of the growth in China is due to cargo – manufactured goods need to move throughout, in and out of the country; construction – infrastructure needs to be built; and consumers, also known as chuppies – consumption of high end goods is the current trend.

On the other side of the globe, Spain was one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, due to a wave of mergers and acquisitions, a surge in construction and a real estate boom.  All factors helped boost iShares MSCI Spain (EWP) ending the year up 48%.

Back in Asia, doing business with your neighbor certainly can be a plus, as it was for Singapore.  The country has the the world’s busiest port and enjoys a healthy economy.  iShares MSCI Singapore (EWS) represents the region and was up 43% for the year.

Mexico made the top performing list last year and does so again in 2006.  iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW) was up another 43% this year.  Even with uncertain election results for part of the year, the Mexican economy boomed with abundant trade and infrastructure development.

Since China took up the top two spots we thought we would include number six, iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD), up 42%.  Sweden’s economy was strong this year, even with an election this past fall.  The ETF has a bit of exposure to financial service companies, which were key performers for the year.

For full disclosure, some of Tom Lydon’s clients own FXI, EWS and EWW.

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  • 2006 was “The Year” for Chinese stocks. A seemingly unquenchable investor thirst for all things Chinese helped propel the Shanghai Composite Index to a 130% gain for the year, followed closely by the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index*. Even though we explained in the previous Newsletter (December 2006 issue) that Shanghai’s stellar performance in 2006 is somewhat misleading because compilers of the Shanghai Composite Index include IPOs right from their debut day, giving the mainland index a regular and artificial boost, the triple digit gain is still remarkable. The interest in China spurred Hong Kong‘s Hang Seng Index to a 34% gain in 2006. The China Enterprise Index, which comprises major Chinese companies, or H-shares, such as PetroChina or China Life Insurance, nearly doubled in value.
    Thanks to the composition of the Xinhua China 25 Index, which basically has the same components as the China Enterprise Index, U.S. investors could capture the stellar performance of the Chinese stock universe. FXI** nearly doubled its value, far outperforming the PGJ***, not to mention the Dow.
    What do we expect in 2007? Will this trend continue? If so, how to get the best out of it?
    First of all, investors have to realize that most of the spectacular index gains are attributed to large cap stocks. We expect to see their strong momentum to carry well into 2007. These large cap stocks make up the Hang Seng China Enterprise and the Xinhua China 25 Indexes composition and as a result, we think these will do well in 2007.
    As we have previously argued, the Shanghai Composite is biased and artificially boosted the way IPOs are calculated into the index performance. With a strong IPO pipeline, Shanghai is expected to perform well in 2007 though not as spectacular as in 2006. Mega IPOs like ICBC’s $20 billion plus are unlikely to occur as the banking sector went public by 2006.
    If history can predict future, the Halter USX China Index (PGJ) will most likely underperform its ETF peer, FXI. We have always preferred FXI and have been vocal about it. Still, PGJ is expected to cheer investors alongside China’s overall economic growth.

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    To get the full story, visit this China stock research company from NY at http://chinavestor.com and sign up for a comlimentory one week free trial.
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