When Real Estate and ETFs Hit Bottom, How Long Will It Stay There?

The housing market, along with related exchange traded funds (ETFs), may see a bottom eventually, but this low point could drag on for awhile.

The U.S. housing market slump that caused median home values to depreciate 24% since 2006 could bottom out next month but economists at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac think a recovery won’t come until another year, writes Kathleen M. Howley for Bloomberg.

The economists also calculated that existing home sales won’t be selling at pre-boom levels until the third quarter of 2010 and home constructions won’t touch 1 million until 2011. For 2009, building starts will only total 496,000 homes, or the lowest since the end of World War II.

A backlog of bank-owned properties and foreclosures on pay option adjustable-rate mortgages will stop housing from playing its traditional role of boosting the economy. Analysts at Bloomberg estimate the world’s largest economy will only grow 1.9% next year.

Home prices in 20 major cities dropped 18.7% in March year-over-year as a result of foreclosures. The national median home price will continue to drop until 2011. The nationwide average home price has fallen 12%.

While it’s fine to try and spot bottoms, we suggest that you have a strategy in place and watch the trend lines in order to be sure that a bottom has indeed been hit.

• First Trust S&P REIT Index Fund (FRI): down 10.2% year-to-date

• SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB): up 3.4% year-to-date

Max Chen contributed to this article.